Eight Billion And Counting

Hannah T – Year 12 Student

Editor’s Note: Year 12 student Hannah T thoughtfully examines the current global population crisis. This well-researched article looks at the situation through a multitude of different lenses and asks us to consider what will control our future. EB

From when Homo sapiens emerged, it took around 300,000 years before the Earth’s population reached one billion. That was roughly the year of 1804: morphine had just been discovered, Beethoven first performed his Third Symphony and Haiti declared independence from France. Since World War Two, we have been adding one billion people to the global population every 12-15 years and we have gained our most recent one billion since the first term of US President Barack Obama: a mere dozen years after reaching seven billion.

The UN secretary general Antonio Guterres declared the birth of the 8 billionth baby “an occasion to celebrate”; however, most of our current population growth is not due to births but to the increase of life expectancy, so, perhaps we should celebrate this increased life expectancy instead? This has been brought about by improvements in public health such as nutrition, hygiene, housing, sanitation and also modern medical care, all of which have reduced the prevalence of disease. So, for any child being born today the risks of dying young are far less than in the past; however,  population growth brings with it immense challenges, so should we be worried?

From a purely economic perspective there is still ongoing debate about the effects of an increase in the population on economic growth. Economists have traditionally viewed population growth in a pessimistic way, but in recent years many economists have argued that population growth can be seen as an economic asset. Particularly as we move towards a knowledge-based economy, a larger global population can benefit from greater human capital and economies of scale.

Over the last 30 years – during which the world’s population has doubled – per capita incomes have increased by about two-thirds. The greater skills, knowledge and experience of individuals and populations is thought to have contributed to this as well as social and institutional innovations in the way people work, the standard of their education and health and the extent to which they participate in the political process. Population growth can lead to positive impacts on economic development because as the population increases, so does the stock of human ingenuity and talent: the probability of finding a genius, such as Einstein of Beethoven, or amazing scientists greatly increases, which could result in more technological advances and cultural masterpieces, aiding societal progression. Therefore, larger societies are better positioned to develop, exploit and disseminate the increased flow of knowledge they receive. As well as an increased chance of cutting-edge discoveries this greater human capital results in the production of more goods providing higher tax revenues, which, with good governance, these can be reinvested in infrastructure and services such as healthcare and education. Therefore, population growth can be beneficial.

In addition to a larger global population benefiting from greater human capital, a larger population also has the capacity to take advantage of economies of scale. Nowhere are these economies of scale demonstrated better than in farming and industry, which has resulted in food and manufacturing outputs growing even faster than population growth. Despite the theories of Malthus in the 1790s, who felt that food production would quickly be swamped by the pressures of a rapidly growing population, resulting in a high death rate through lack of sustenance, this was not the case. His pessimistic prediction failed to materialise because he did not appreciate that the productivity of land, labour and capital could all increase. Over the last 200 years technological progress and innovation, in both agriculture and industry, has been more rapid than during any other time in human history. Economies of scale (e.g. irrigation systems), technological innovation (e.g. mechanisation) and genetically modified high yield crop varieties (e.g. the Green Revolution) mean that the productivity of land has vastly increased, resulting in food production increasing faster than population growth. Critics may assert that even so, population growth creates unequal pressure on resources and resources are potentially finite; however, people are resourceful and are stimulated to innovate, especially in adversity.

Despite this optimistic view of population growth some economists have highlighted that the age structure of the population and other factors such as country size, openness to trade, educational attainment of the population and the quality of civil and political institutions should also be considered when determining whether population growth produces economic growth. For example working age adults are important in providing labour and driving the economy through consumption, while the elderly and young have more need for education, healthcare and retirement income. When the relative sizes of these groups change in a population the prospects for a country’s income growth also changes. These confounding factors have meant that over the last half-century many economists have been of the view that there is little cross-border evidence that population growth impedes or promotes economic growth.

However, perhaps more importantly than the economic arguments are the environmental challenges we face as the world’s population continues to rise. Each individual born will create their own carbon footprint and climate change is inexorably linked to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that we each produce. Although the wealthiest 10% of the population consume twenty times more energy overall than the bottom 10%, the number of humans is still important, and it is indisputable that the climate impact of 2-3 billion more humans is immense. Climate change is driven by a global energy system that is still overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels and is fast becoming the greatest threat in history to biodiversity, food security and access to water for drinking and farming. Hunger currently affects 10% of the global population according to the World Food Programme. The effects of climate change seem to be more acute in the global south and the challenge of increasing food production in these areas without detrimental effects on the environment or worsening the climate crisis through increased greenhouse gas emissions is problematic.

Likewise, the ecological effects of population growth also needs careful consideration. Pollution is degrading many areas of the oceans. Wildlife is disappearing at alarming rates as forests and other wildlands are destroyed by humans for development, agriculture and commercial products. Greater population will lead to greater pollution levels in air, water and land, resulting in a multitude of health issues such as cancer and asthma, as well as harming a plethora of animals and plants. Despite incentives, such as Prince William’s Earthshot prize, the solutions that will repair our planet this decade, have not yet been found.

In the last 25 years, almost all the population growth has been happening in developing economies, mainly in Asia, Oceania and Africa and this trend is expected to continue. The share of people living in developing countries has increased from 66% in 1950 to 83% now and is likely to reach 86% by 2050. These areas, especially the continent Africa, are bearing the heaviest brunt of socioeconomic inequalities, poor living conditions and faster population growth, making addressing the climate emergency and increasing food and energy needs all the more urgent. Recently, the socioeconomic inequality within countries has also grown with a rapid increase in rural to urban migration and the associated population natural increase. As populations in urban areas increase, some governments are unable to support their populations with essential infrastructure such as water and housing resulting in disease and death due to high population densities, excessive waste and unsanitary conditions. However the birth rate is falling in Africa, particularly in North Africa and countries such as Tunisia have a rate of just 2.2 children per woman. Government policies such as access to contraception to reduce the 50% of pregnancies globally which are unplanned, access to education particularly for girls and urban dwelling and employment, all contribute to this fall.

Developing countries already struggle to provide for their populations and will need support to meet the future demands of a growing population without excessive use of natural resources and generation of waste and pollution. Countries with high economic performance currently generate twice the amount of waste per capita, compared to developing countries. Developing countries have expressed concerns about the possible detrimental effects of global incentives designed to reduce carbon emissions on their economic growth. This highlights the need to disconnect economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions while ensuring a fair, low-carbon transition.

Overall, I believe the long term effects of global population growth are uncertain. Patrick Gerland, who oversees population estimates for the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs commented recently on population growth: “the exact impacts on future human life, I think, are still somewhat yet to be determined.” The risks and opportunities of our population boom and an environmental crisis depends largely on the decisions we have not yet made. Which will control our future more: the billions of mouths we’ll have to feed or the billions more brains we could employ to do so?